Winners and Losers Under the New Trump Administration’s Tariff Policies


A New Era of Opportunity Amid Trade Turbulence

On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States, signaling a seismic shift in global trade dynamics. With tariffs once again at the forefront of economic policy, a bold and unapologetic America-first strategy is reshaping the playing field for investors and traders.

For savvy traders, these changes present a once-in-a-generation opportunity to capitalize on industry winners while avoiding costly pitfalls. This report is your roadmap to navigating the evolving landscape with precision and confidence.

The Man Behind the Policy: Stephen Miran, the Tariff Architect

Driving this dramatic shift is Stephen Miran, Trump’s likely choice to lead the Council of Economic Advisers. Known for his out-of-the-box thinking, Miran is reshaping how tariffs are viewed—not just as trade tools, but as weapons of economic strategy. His guiding principles include:

  • Currency Effects: Stronger tariffs strengthen the U.S. dollar, potentially lowering consumer costs while increasing pressure on exporting nations.
  • Exporter Burden: Foreign producers bear the brunt of economic strain, disrupting global competitors’ purchasing power.
  • National Security Alignment: Tariffs prioritize economic and defense synergies, forging stronger ties with allies while countering adversaries.
  • Optimal Tariff Rates: Miran believes U.S. tariffs are far below levels that could maximize both public welfare and government revenue.

This policy playbook is more than rhetoric—it’s a game plan for disruption that will reward the prepared and penalize the complacent.

Winners: Industries Set to Thrive

The Trump administration’s tariff policies prioritize strengthening industries critical to U.S. economic independence and national security. Let’s break down the key players:

Steel and Manufacturing

  • Nucor Corporation (NUE): As tariffs drive up the cost of imported steel, demand for domestically produced steel skyrockets.
  • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF): A direct beneficiary of higher domestic steel prices, CLF is well-positioned to dominate the market.

Defense and Aerospace

  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC): Both stand to gain from prioritization of U.S.-based contractors in defense budgets, aligning with national security goals.

Energy

  • ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX): The energy giants gain from policies that reduce dependence on foreign oil, supporting domestic production.

Semiconductors and Technology

  • Intel (INTC) and Micron Technology (MU): The push for onshoring chip production puts these U.S. tech leaders in the driver’s seat, leveling the playing field against global competitors.

Losers: Industries in the Crosshairs

For some sectors, tariffs create headwinds that can’t be ignored. Traders should tread carefully in the following areas:

Export-Heavy Machinery

  • Deere & Co. (DE): Retaliatory tariffs and a stronger dollar dampen global competitiveness, threatening earnings.

Retail

  • Walmart (WMT): Reliance on imported goods means rising costs and shrinking margins, leaving little room to maneuver.

Automotive

  • Tesla (TSLA): With complex international supply chains, Tesla’s production costs are likely to rise, squeezing profitability.

Your Trading Playbook: Navigating the New Trade Order

The return of Trump-era tariffs is a double-edged sword—one that cuts deep for the unprepared but offers untold riches for those who act decisively. As traders, now is the time to:

  • Capitalize on the Winners: Target sectors poised for growth, including domestic manufacturing, defense, energy, and technology.
  • Avoid the Losers: Steer clear of industries exposed to global supply chain risks or retaliatory tariffs.
  • Stay Informed: Knowledge is power. Join the conversation daily to uncover actionable insights and profitable trade ideas.

Join the Movement: Real Data, Real Trades, Real Results

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Together, let’s turn uncertainty into opportunity. Don’t just watch history unfold—become part of it.

Thanks for reading,

Jonathan Rose