Issue 2: #PROOF, How 1 Trader Turned 1 ETH into 4.75 in 2 Days – Masters In Trading

#PROOF, HOW 1 TRADER TURNED 1 ETH INTO 4.75 IN 2 DAYS

Welcome to Issue 002 of the Masters in Trading Digest.

This is a new project and the FREE Digest will evolve over time.

The plan is to publish a new Masters in Trading Digest issue every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday — sometimes a bit more, and sometimes a bit less when life gets in the way.

And any time something really important is going on – something you're not seeing in the mainstream financial media – you can count on hearing from us!

You can also count on us responding to your feedback because the MIT Digest is created and shared to help you find comfort in the financial markets.

In our first issue, we shared an Actionable Trade Recommendation in a Silver Miner, reviewed a trade idea in $TWTR, and shared members' commentary from our Discord community.

Today we will highlight a trade idea in cryptocurrency, and then in Friday's issue, we will turn to Futures.

Here we go.

HOW TO INTERPRET VOLATILITY AND A STOCK’S EXPECTED RANGE

The Importance of Focusing on Volatility – Volatility Visualizer

The chart above is a screenshot of Volatility Visualizer, a tool our members are encouraged to use daily.

This Indicator shows the ‘Expected Range’ that is priced in an options contract.  

We have a complete video tutorial on Mastersintrading.com.

For this example, I use one of the most liquid options contracts – $TLT, Ishares Trust 20 YR Bond. 

The Expected Range is the options at-the-money straddle, it’s the range that the underlying stock should close in IF volatility is priced correctly.  When the underlying trades out of these green and red bookends, volatility is underpriced, and long option holders benefit.

For $TLT, over the last 12 months, the underlying contract has closed within its Expected Move 83.33% of the time [Close IN: 83.33%].  It’s fair to conclude that options market makers have a great understanding of the movement of $TLT and (over the last 12 months) have priced these options efficiently.

Also, notice how the bottom and top of the Expected Move bands are excellent indicators for ‘support’ and ‘resistance’.  The market bounces off the red lines and is continuously rejected from the green lines throughout the past 12 months.  These are the outer boundaries of the $TLT straddle, and the underlying contract has a difficult time breaching these levels because of the intense hedging activity that occurs on the edges of an options Expected Move.

As a former market marker, I have come to realize the importance of finding underlying stock tickers that are not as well-known as $TLT, $AMZN or $AAPL.  I strongly believe because these names have the most liquidity, they are also the most properly valued.

Now let’s look at $LEU, a uranium stock that is far less followed than $TLT.

The first thing I notice is the difference in the width of the Expected Move from early to 2021, to the end of 2021.  This means market makers have continued to raise volatility levels, in hopes of containing these massive moves.  In addition, notice how the ‘Close IN is 58.33% over the last 12 months?  This is a drastic difference from the 83.33% of $TLT.

Conclusion – Market Makers are excellent at valuing $TLT, and not great at pricing volatility for $LEU.  Traders have more ‘EDGE’ buying options in $LEU than $TLT.

Watch the Voliatility Visualizer video for a complete overview of this powerful trading tool. 

DISCORD HIGHLIGHTS

HOLY SMOKES!

My passion for Ethereum runs deep, really deep.  

I recently shared “My Personal Journey into Cryptocurrency” in a blog post.

One of my favorite Podcasts that I listen to while walking my dog Mercury is called “Proof.”  Proof is an interview-style Podcast from Kevin Rose, a serial entrepreneur who is best known for creating the website Digg, and who most recently worked at Google Ventures.

NFT RELEASE

Kevin Rose released a NFT this past Monday. The NFT was a membership to an exclusive club he was creating for those with passion for NFT’s.

The NFT was released using a Dutch Auction style.  The auction would start at 5 Ethereum, and drop in price by .5 Ethereum every 10 minutes until enough buyers were found to sell all 1,000 NFT Passes (these passes were an invitation to join an exclusive community.)

I shared the release in our Coins Discord channel. 

And to my shocking surprise, the auction didn’t settle until the passes were all sold for only 1 Ethereum!  WOWWEE!

Ram was in my boat, but Matt was able to grab a pass for only 1 Ethereum (about $3800).

The auction was Sunday night, 12/11/21, and look what happened to the price only 2 days later:

The floor, which means the lowest price that a holder of the pass is willing to sell is 4.78 Ethereum!

Purchased for 1 Ethereum:  $3,800

Value of Proof NFT (2 days later) 4.78 Ethereum:  $18,164

This really is the Wild West.  Congratulations, Matt!

Important Note – the Coins Discord is for our MIT coaching students.  The coaching program is structured for those looking to get their ‘Masters’ in Trading.  This program is application only and takes 6 months to complete.  

For more information, reach email us at support@mastersintrading.com.

BREAKING DOWN THE BLOG

FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY DECISION ANNOUNCEMENT WEDNESDAY

It’s safe to say there will be twists and turns on Wednesday as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is widely expected to adopt a more hawkish stance in his post-meeting news conference.

It is widely believed that the Fed will double the pace at which it is tapering its bond purchases at the end of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Don’t be surprised if the Fed also commits to more rate hikes over the next couple of years.

Longtime Coaching Client, Stacy Brovitz, wrote an article – How to Trade the Impact of the Fed’s Reverse Repo Programs – explaining the dynamics of the Federal Reserve’s Repurchase (Repo) and Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo) Agreements Work

With the Fed announcement coming, we believe this education is timely for all traders.

ACTIONABLE TRADE RECOMMENDATION - $BANK

We know Cryptocurrencies are going mainstream, this is a fact.

Whatever your personal opinion is about the viability of the movement going forward, it is tough to argue with a collective market cap that is comfortably over $1,000,000,000,000 ($1T).  So I started looking at media companies.

I was dumbfounded when I learned the top Ethereum media company, Bankless, traded at less than a $20m market cap.

At the time of the Tweet, $BANK had a market cap of $20m, with its coin priced at $.07.  Today $BANK has a market cap of $45m, with the coin priced at $.1699.  

It is my strong opinion that $BANK will trade with a $500m market cap in less than a few years.

FINAL THOUGHTS

WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT MIT DIGEST

The next issue of the MIT Digest will be released after the close on Friday.

We will review the week, and discuss the snippets shared in our inaugural week of the MIT Digest.

Keep your feedback coming in to support@mastersintrading.com.  We’re excited to share your feedback along with fantastic suggestions for upcoming issues.

Until Friday, trade smart and always manage your tail-risk.

Thanks for reading,

Jonathan Rose

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Masters in Trading Digest - Issue 2

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