The Biggest Disconnect in the Last 20 Years

We shared our long thesis for $RBLX 12 months back on March 21, 2021.  

At the time $RBLX was trading at $65 per share.  Since then, $RBLX stock has rallied to a high of $141.60, and then down to a recently traded low of $53.10.  

Full Disclosure:  I continue to hold shares long in $RBLX.  Our long position in Roblox is a bet on the future of the Metaverse, that thesis is still intact.

The image above uses our Volatility Visualizer tool. This tool is simple and straightforward because it shows the expected move of $RBLX for each monthly option expiration. This chart takes you back to the March 10th IPO.  At the top of the chart, notice the number 80%, labeled as “Close In”.  This number refers to the amount of times $RBLX has closed within it’s expected move. So far, that number is 80%.  

As I write, $RBLX sits on the bottom of it’s expected move from the previous month – this level will be a good test of $RBLX’s willingness to trade higher.