What Can Volatility Skew, Convexity and Variance Tell You About the Futures Market's Forecast

When the convexity of a futures contract is higher than that of out of the money or other tradable futures on the yield curve, it implies that the price of the contract will be more sensitive to changes in interest rates. In this case, the 5-year ZF Futures contract has a convexity of 1.11, which is higher than out of the money other instruments on the yield curve, whose convexity is below 1.05. This means that the price of the 5-year ZF Futures contract will be more sensitive to changes in interest rates compared to current stock price and to the other instruments on the yield curve.

Traders who are bullish on interest rates may view the high convexity of the 5-year ZF Futures contract as an opportunity to profit from potential price movements resulting from changes in interest rates. On the other hand, traders who are bearish on interest rates may view the high convexity as a potential risk, as the contract's price could move against their position more quickly than other contracts. Overall, it is important to consider convexity along with other factors when analyzing the potential risks, downside and opportunities of trading a futures contract.

Outright vs. Spread Trading and the Benefits and Risks of Each Approach

When there is a disconnect between the liquid futures contracts on the yield curve, there are several benefits and risks to consider when choosing whether to trade outright or to trade spreads.

Trading outright involves speculating on the direction of one particular futures contract in the interest rate complex. The benefit of trading outright is that it allows traders to focus on a single contract, which can simplify trading decisions and reduce risk. However, trading outright can also be riskier, as traders are exposed to greater price volatility and may have less flexibility to adjust their positions as market conditions change.

Trading spreads, such as the FiT and the NOB, involve simultaneously buying and selling two or more futures contracts in the interest rate complex. The benefit of trading spreads is that it can help to reduce risk by offsetting potential losses on one contract with gains on another. Additionally, trading spreads can be less volatile than trading outright, as changes in the spread price are typically driven by changes in the yield curve rather than changes in a single futures contract. However, trading spreads can also be more complex than trading outright and may require more experience and expertise to execute successfully.

Ultimately call options, whether to trade outright money options, or spreads will depend on a trader's individual goals, risk tolerance, and market outlook. It is important to carefully consider the benefits and risks of each approach and to develop a clear trading plan before entering the options market.

How Futures Traders Can Leverage the CME CVOL to Manage Market Risk and Capitalize on Market Concerns

Futures traders can use the CME CVOL (CME Group Volatility Index) to better manage their market risk and make informed decisions. The CVOL provides a real-time measure of the expected volatility of key futures contracts, including commodities, which allows traders to gauge market concerns and anticipate potential price swings.

By monitoring relative changes in the CVOL, traders can identify possible upside or downside risks in the market. This information can help traders adjust their positions accordingly, such as hedging against potential losses or taking advantage of potential gains. Overall, the CME CVOL provides traders with valuable insights into market volatility, enabling them to make more informed and strategic trading decisions.

Factors to Consider When Choosing Between Outright and Spread Trading in Interest Rate Futures

When deciding whether to trade outright or spreads, traders may also want to consider the current state of the market and the level of volatility skew. Implied volatility can vary across different futures contracts, with some contracts having a higher or lower implied volatility than others. This variation of implied volatility prices is called the volatility skew.

This can impact the price of futures and options prices of commodities and therefore affect the potential profits or losses of outright or spread positions involving futures. In addition, volatility in equity markets can also have an impact on interest rate futures trading, as changes in the stock price and market sentiment can lead to changes in interest rate expectations and yield curve movements.

Overall, the decision to trade outright or spreads will depend on a variety of factors, including individual goals, risk tolerance, market conditions at the money options or, and the level of expertise of those at least in the money options or trader.

Implied Volatility and an Options Skew

Implied volatilities exhibit varying degrees of complexity across different strikes, resulting in the reverse skew or formation vertical skew of the volatility curve. Negative skew is the term used when the implied volatilities of put options are higher than their call option counterparts. Conversely, positive skew in volatility is observed when the implied volatilities of calls are greater than those of puts.

The Importance of Skew in Analyzing Bond Futures on the Yield Curve

In the figure presented below, there are two distributions, each displaying a different type of skewness.

The tapering sides on the left and right of each graph are known as tails, and they provide a visual cue for determining the type of skewness present in the distribution.

The implied volatility of out-of-the money puts and calls exhibiting a symmetrical behavior is known as “the smile,” indicating the presence of positive convexity. This implies that when the underlying futures prices increases or decreases, market expectations are for an acceleration in volatilities at greater rates than what would be predicted by Black Scholes Model. Comparing products across different markets can produce varying results; if two CVOLs measured 4.5 points apart gave rise to 15% difference on one product compared with 5% from another, it's indicative that options pricing on Product A will anticipate more significant changes in option levels relative to movements in its underlying future price versus those seen in Product B .

When analyzing Bond Futures on the yield curve, it's important to consider both convexity and volatility skew together. Skew refers to the difference in implied volatility between options with different strike prices but the same expiration date. In the context of Bond Futures at the money side, this means that options on the same underlying futures contract can have different implied volatility depending on their strike prices.

Concerns and differences arise depending on the trading strategy. For outright trading, if there is a large skew, it can present opportunities for buying or selling options at attractive prices, as the market may be mis-pricing the probability of a particular move in interest rates. However, the downside risk is that if the market moves against the position, losses can be substantial.

Spread Trade Implied Volatility Skew

When it comes to spread trading, if there is a large skew between strike price of two related futures contracts, it may be more advantageous to trade a spread instead of outright positions. For example, if option price and strike price of the FiT and NOB futures contracts have different skew values, trading the FiT-NOB spread may be more profitable than trading either contract outright.

More sophisticated trades involving three instruments, such as triangles and butterflies, require a deep understanding of both convexity and skew. These trades involve trading combinations of options on three different futures contracts to take advantage of relative value opportunities. In this case, the trader needs to consider the skew and convexity of put options on each underlying futures contract and how they interact with each other in the trade.

Overall, analyzing both skew and convexity is important when trading Bond Futures on the yield curve, as they both play a significant role in determining the prices and profitability of various trading strategies.

The Role of Variance in Trading the Yield Curve with Bond Futures

When it comes to trading the yield curve with bond futures, variance can play a significant role in how traders approach their positions. Variance refers to the volatility of an asset's returns over a certain period of the time horizon, and it can be a key factor investors see in determining the risk and potential reward of a trade.

In the context of bond futures markets, variance in option prices is often closely tied to convexity and skew. As we discussed earlier, convexity measures how a bond's price will change in response to changes in interest rates, while skew measures the probability of extreme moves in the yield curve.

When variance underlying asset itself is high, it can increase the upside potential payoff of a trade but also increase the risk. For example, if a trader expects a large move in the yield curve, they may choose to take a position that benefits from the upside of that move, such options trading as a butterfly or triangle spread. However, if the move does not materialize, the trader could experience significant losses.

Variance, Convexity and Skew

The impact of variance on asset itself can also differ depending on the direction of the move. When yields are rising, up variance can lead to greater profits for investors, money managers and traders who have taken short positions in the market. However, when yields on stocks are falling, down variance can lead to larger profits for those investors who have taken long positions.

Ultimately, traders must weigh the potential benefits and risks of a position in light of the prevailing variance, convexity, and skew of the underlying asset or assets. For outright trades, this means considering the duration of the bond, the shape of the yield curve, and other market factors that can impact the position or security's price performance. For more sophisticated trades involving multiple instruments, such as triangles and butterflies, traders must carefully analyze the interplay of variance, convexity, and skew to determine the optimal strategy.

In addition to variance, traders also need to consider other factors such as volatility, options skew, and the implied volatility of options when trading bond futures on the yield curve. Volatility skew refers to the difference in implied volatility between options with different strike prices but the same expiration date. When analyzing bond futures, traders need to take into account the volatility skew between options at different strike prices to identify any opportunities for mispricing.

Additionally, equity financial markets can impact interest rate futures trading as changes in stock market sentiment can lead to changes in interest rate expectations and yield curve movements. Traders may also want to consider the prices of out-of-the-money call options and in-the-money options, as this can provide insight into market expectations for the future fluctuations and likely movement of the underlying futures contract. Overall, traders need to consider multiple factors such as variance, skew, and market conditions when making trading decisions.

In summary, variance is an important consideration when trading the yield curve with bond futures. It can impact the potential payoff and risk of a position, particularly when combined with convexity and skew. Traders and fund managers must carefully analyze these factors to determine the best approach to trading the yield curve.